Happy Thorsday! @ELLEUK has an interview with Natalie Portman to celebrate the release of #ThorDarkWorld It’s out now
Last weekend we saw Gravity out run the competition for the 3rd week in a row as Carrie and Escape Plan both under performed. This weekend it is seemingly all about Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and I fully expect it to knock Gravity off its perch. The Jackass story has seen a $22m opening, followed by $29m followed by $50m for Jackass 3D. Bad Grandpa is a unique property in itself so whilst I don’t see it hitting the heights of 3D, I believe it can compete and outperform Jackass 2. Expect a $30m+ opening. Expect Gravity and Captain Phillips to continue their strong holdovers by taking 2nd and 3rd place with The Counselor challenging but likely to hit around $10-12m with a fair wind.
After a month of underwhelming box office, the UK set sail last week with Captain Phillips and the racy Turbo. They are joined this week by a number of new releases as we head into half term. Competing for market share in the family space will be Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs 2 and arguably Enders Game which plays a little older. For some alternative pleasure, look no further than Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and if that’s no hilarious enough, there’s also the Paul Potts true story, One Chance. So what does this all mean? According to our buzz chart, Cloudy is set for a strong opening. Why? Well given its an animated release we rarely see these warm the top of the charts as volume of conversation in social channels is limited for family product. But against norms, Cloudy looks strong. For perspective, Turbo last week had less volume of conversation, less intent and a lower percentage of intent vs buzz. Bad Grandpa could surprise as well showing strong levels of intent. I’m expecting Enders Game to under perform versus expectation. In terms of holdover, Captain Phillips looks strong and the market is preparing itself for Gravity which is tracking very well on our scale.